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Punditology 2006: picking the winners in the Oregon primary election

By None:

So, each year 'round this time, we run a little no-money betting pool among the consultants, journalists, candidates, campaign staff, lobbyists, and hacks. Pick the winners of the big races and some obscure races, and your name goes up in lights.

WINNERS

The 2006 Punditology Challenge (Oregon Primary Edition) has come and gone, and here's the results:

Metro Councilor Brian Newman - who was re-elected without opposition last night - scored top marks, getting 23 out of 25 correct. The only ones he missed? Brian picked last-place finisher Chuck Butcher for the Second CD, and thought Saltzman/Fritz would go to a run-off. He didn't need the tiebreaker, but Brian also got the top three in order correctly in HD46.

We had a big five-way tie for second place - with 20 of 25 correct - including 1000 Friends staff planner Dan Eisenbeis, legislative staffer Mike Reiley, Bus Project activist and Our Oregon intern Jonathan Pulvers, campaign staffer Mike Linman, and State Senator Ryan Deckert. Eisenbeis and Linman got the top three in order correctly in HD46 to nose out the others.

[Correction: While Jonathan Pulvers is definitely on the Bus, he picked up all the tips he needed to nail 20 of 25 at his current internship at Our Oregon. That doesn't explain the lackluster performance of the other folks in that office, but we digress...]

[Correction on the Correction: With four entries, all with 17 or better picks, the excellent and brilliant staff of Our Oregon were clearly the finest group of punditologists seen in these parts since gosh I don't know when. (OK, Patty and Kevin, how's that for a gushing retraction?)]

The Top 60 participants (out of 232) are... drum roll please...


(23 out of 25) Brian Newman
(20) Daniel Eisenbeis
(20) Jonathan Pulvers
(20) Mike Reiley
(20) Mike Linman
(20) Ryan Deckert
(19) Amy Jenniges
(19) Christopher Nicholson
(19) Ed Dennis
(19) Ernie Delmazzo
(19) Josh Berezin
(19) Kari Chisholm
(19) Tom Powers
(18) Christina Smith
(18) Elizabeth Hammond
(18) Fred Segrest
(18) Jeff Cogen
(18) Joel Shapiro
(18) Larry Galizio
(18) Mara Gros
(18) Nate Currie
(18) Randy Tucker
(18) Suzanne Bonamici
(18) Tim Nesbitt
(17) Becca Uherbelau
(17) Bob Stacey
(17) Dave Hunt
(17) Gary Corbin
(17) Jeannie Berg
(17) Jeff Alworth
(17) Jesse Cornett
(17) Jeston Black
(17) Joe Keizur
(17) John Mulvey
(17) Jon Pugsley
(17) Kevin Looper
(17) Matt Grumm
(17) Nick Fish
(17) Tim Crail
(16) Alan Fleischman
(16) Barbara Smith Warner
(16) Christy Splitt
(16) David Moskowitz
(16) David Jarvis
(16) Deborah Kafoury
(16) Gabe Kjos
(16) Jake Oken-Berg
(16) Jefferson Smith
(16) Jill Thorn
(16) Joel Fowlks
(16) Justin Thiltgen
(16) Katherine Pfeiffer
(16) Katy Daily
(16) Ken Ray
(16) Mac Prichard
(16) Mike Riley
(16) Pat Mobley
(16) Phil Donovan
(16) Tom Wolf
(16) Willie Smith

To protect the innocent (and wrong) we won't post the names of the rest - but let's just say that quite a few elected officials and bigtime journalists and consultants just don't know their Oregon politics.

OUR COLLECTIVE WISDOM

As always, we were mostly right. Except when we were really wrong. The consensus got 17 of 25 right -- with 6 of the 8 wrong picks in the local races. You can see the full collective wisdom here.

  • 80% of us picked Jesse Cornett to win. (Oh, the agony.)
  • 65% thought the Beaverton School Bond would pass, but it failed the double majority. (Trick question, I know.)
  • 64% picked Anna Morrison to beat Bill Fleenor in the Lane County Commission race.
  • 61% thought Steve March would best LaVonne Griffin-Valade.
  • 61% thought Jim Randall would beat Laura Tesler in the Salem City Council race.
  • 51% thought it would be a Sten/Burdick run-off, and 42% thought Sten would win outright.
  • 40% picked a Cogen/Hansen run-off, and only 20% correctly picked a Cogen/Frederick run-off.
  • 31% thought it would be a Hallman/Roberts run-off, and only 26% correctly picked the Linder/Roberts run-off. (Another 25% thought it would be Linder/Hallman.)