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Punditology 2004: Which political nerd reigns supreme?

By None:

This year in the Punditology Challenge, we had 151 entrants for the national contest and 215 entrants for the Oregon edition -- our biggest year yet. Entrants included political hacks, lobbyists, reporters, candidates, elected officials, and real people too. We never reveal the names of the 'losers' but rest assured that you probably beat some big names.

[We had been holding off on reporting Punditology results until Washington state declares a winner for governor, but it looks to be a few more weeks. What are they doing up there? As an optimistic Democrat, I'm making the call for Christine Gregoire - especially since 141 of you picked her. So, these results reflect a Gregoire win.]

First, the National Challenge results: With 36 picks to make, the average score was 20 correct calls. But, one person ran away with it. Intel policy guy Jonathan Williams nailed 34 correct calls. He got every presidential state right except New Hampshire, as well as every Senate race and every gubernatorial race in the nation. (He also declared a Bush win by 10-19 votes, but it was well over 20 votes.)

Runners-up were Oregon Farm Bureau attorney Tim Bernasek with 30 right, UO law student Jarret Hamstreet with 29, and OHSU lobbyist Bryan Boehringer with 29. (Two years ago, Bryan was our champ, so he's definitely not just lucky.)

As for the Oregon Challenge results, the average score was 22 of 31 correct. For the championship trophy, uber-hack and consultant Phil Donovan got 29 right - nailing 7 of 8 measures and 12 of 13 legislative races. (Phil also nailed the voter-turnout tiebreaker exactly.) Runners-up with 28 correct include ODE Chief of Staff Ed Dennis and politico Karynn Fish.

Here's the top-50 or so in each Challenge...

National Punditology
(34 of 36) Jonathan Williams
(30) Tim Bernasek
(29) Bryan Boehringer
(29) Jarret Hamstreet
(28) D. E. Bridges
(28) Ed Dennis
(28) Katie Fast
(28) Keith McNeilly
(28) Tim Wigley
(27) Fred VanNatta
(26) Brian Newman
(26) Darrell Fuller
(26) Dustin Buehler
(26) Joel Shapiro
(26) Matt Schumaker
(26) Max Gleischman
(26) Paul Lang
(25) Anne Martens
(25) Evan Manvel
(25) Jake Oken-Berg
(25) Jon Chandler
(25) Marc Abrams
(25) Marco Nunez
(25) Rich Rodgers
(25) Tim Nesbitt
(25) Travis Brouwer
(24) Alan Fleischman
(24) Darian Stanford
(24) Joel Fowlks
(24) Jonathan Poisner
(24) Josh Connolly
(24) Kari Chisholm
(24) Lance Erz
(24) Ty Kovatch
(23) Brian Smith
(23) Chris Dearth
(23) Connie Seeley
(23) Jacob Weigler
(23) Jesse Cornett
(23) Jon Isaacs
(23) Libby Upham
(23) Paul Shively
(23) Richard Gray
(23) Scott Ballo
(23) Scott Pratt
(23) Tim Crail
(23) Tom Novick
(23) Wayne Kuechler

Oregon Punditology
(29 of 31) Phil Donovan
(28) Ed Dennis
(28) Karynn Fish
(27) BethAnne Darby
(27) Dave Hunt
(27) Drew Hagedorn
(27) Robin Denburg
(26) Alan Tresidder
(26) Bob Russell
(26) David Moskowitz
(26) Fred VanNatta
(26) Jed Jorgenson
(26) Joe Baessler
(26) John Ledger
(26) Jonathan Eames
(26) Jonathan Poisner
(26) Jonathan Williams
(26) Kellie Shoemaker
(26) Ken Ray
(26) Saul Xavier
(26) Stephen Anderson
(26) Tim Raphael
(26) Tricia Bosak
(25) Becca Uherbelau
(25) Brian Newman
(25) Bryan Boehringer
(25) Chuck Sheketoff
(25) Connie Seeley
(25) Dave Miller
(25) Deborah Kafoury
(25) Diana Madarieta
(25) Dustin Buehler
(25) Gary Conkling
(25) James Williams
(25) Jeannie Berg
(25) Jeff Bissonnette
(25) Jefferson Smith
(25) Jill Thorn
(25) Joel Shapiro
(25) Mac Prichard
(25) Mitch Greenlick
(25) Ralph Saperstein
(25) Suzanne Kunse

Update: Someone asked me about combined results. I'm reluctant because this pool wasn't intended to be combined, but hey, why not? Here's the top ten folks with combined scores: Jonathan Williams, Ed Dennis, Bryan Boehringer, Tim Bernasek, Fred VanNatta, Brian Newman, Dustin Buehler, Joel Shapiro, Jonathan Poisner.

Good luck in 2006!

Posted on November 8, 2004 in
punditology.