Punditology: The Winners
Well, this year we had 101 participants in the Oregon Punditology Challenge. With all the upsets, no one ran away with it. Three people correctly picked 15/20, eleven picked 14/20 correct, fifteen picked 13/20 right. Y'all are a high-quality bunch of folks - only seventeen got less than half right (and your secret is safe with us.)
The champs, with 15/20 right:
All three champs correctly picked 5/8 legislative races and 10/12 non-legislative races.
You see, Martin had 14 of 20 right but we had to bump him into a class by himself - he nailed EXACTLY the 81% that John Kerry got in the presidential primary. Incidentally, he nailed 7 of 8 legislative races and complained loudly about the Portland-centrism of the Challenge. (yeah, yeah, martin.)
Runners-up, with 14/20 right:
About the Conventional Wisdom
When the conventional wisdom was wrong, well, once again it was spectacularly wrong.
* Almost no one predicted the Potter/Francesconi finish (well, no one except me(!), Tom Novick, John Ball, Joe Smith, Becky Pearcey, and somebody known only as mortonjr77)
* The Buckley/Uherbelau race was picked correctly by only 38 of 101 punditologists, and only 24 people correctly picked the Thatcher/Backlund upset.
Well, that's about it. In the fall, we'll add in a bunch of national picks.
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